:Product: 0223RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Feb 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low. Region 1161 (N13W69)
produced the periods only C-class event, a C1 at 23/1223Z. Both
Region 1161 and Region 1162 (N18W73) have decayed significantly and
have a simple Beta magnetic classification.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (24-26 February). There is a chance for
an isolated  C-class event from Region 1161 before it rotates off
the visible disk.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet with an isolated unsettled
period at 23/1500-1800Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet on day one (24 February). Quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three (25-26
February).
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Feb 089
Predicted   24 Feb-26 Feb  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        23 Feb 087
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb  005/005-007/008-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01