:Product: 0227RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Feb 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 058 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. 
Region 1164 (N27E46) produced several C-class events, the largest of
which was a C4/Sf observed at 27/0355Z. A possible filament eruption
around N15E70 was visible on SDO/AIA imagery at approximately
27/0930Z. An associated CME was observed on LASCO C2 at 27/1048Z but
is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (28 February - 02 March). A chance for
M-class activity exists from Region 1164.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (28 February). Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for days two and three (01-02 March) due to
the effects of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Feb 090
Predicted   28 Feb-02 Mar  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        27 Feb 087
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar  005/005-008/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/20/20
Minor storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/25/25
Minor storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01