:Product: 0228RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Feb 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours. 
Region 1164 (N26E33) produced a C2/Sf flare associated with a Type
II Sweep and an M1 event at 28/1252Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (01-03 March). A chance for M-class activity
exists from Region 1164.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected for the next three days (01-03 March) due to the
effects of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Feb 096
Predicted   01 Mar-03 Mar  095/095/098
90 Day Mean        28 Feb 087
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar  008/008-008/010-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/30
Minor storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01