:Product: 0301RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Mar 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 060 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Occasional C-class x-ray
flares occurred throughout the period, the largest of which was a
C6/Sf at 01/0413Z from Region 1164 (N25E19).  This region grew in
size and magnetic complexity, ending the period as an Ekc type with
Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic characteristics.  The remaining regions
were quiescent.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low,
with an increasing chance for an M-class x-ray flare from Region
1164.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm activity
levels during the period.  Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft
began to rise from 310 km/s at approximately 01/0500Z and ended the
period near 500 km/s.  The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field turned south coincident with the increase in solar
wind speed, temperature, and density.  These events suggest the
arrival of a corotating interaction region between 01/05-12Z in
advance of a coronal hole high speed stream.  Bz  averaged -10 nT
for several hours, bringing two periods of minor storm levels at
middle latitudes.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled with a chance for active
conditions over the next three days (2-4 March).  A slight chance
for isolated minor storm periods exists on days one and two (2-3
March).
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Mar 111
Predicted   02 Mar-04 Mar  110/110/110
90 Day Mean        01 Mar 088
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar  019/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar  015/015-015/015-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05