:Product: 0302RSGA.txt :Issued: 2011 Mar 02 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 061 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2011 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1164 (N25E08) produced a C1/Sf x-ray flare at 02/1318Z, the only flare of significance during the period. Region 1164 decreased in area, but remained an Ekc type spot group with Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic characteristics. New Region 1166 (N10E77) rotated onto the disk as an Hsx type spot group with Alpha magnetic characteristics. A flux region emerged in the northeast quadrant near N20E40. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days (03-05 March), however a chance exists for an M-class event from Region 1164. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels for the first 12 hours of the period and at quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream remains geoeffective. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft remained elevated at 640 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field began the period near -10 nT but slowly returned to near neutral values by the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to occasionally active for the next three days (03-05 March) due to the continued influence of the coronal hole high speed stream. III. Event Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar Class M 35/35/35 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Mar 113 Predicted 03 Mar-05 Mar 115/120/120 90 Day Mean 02 Mar 088 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar 018/031 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar 015/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 015/015-012/012-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/20 Minor storm 15/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 40/25/25 Minor storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 10/05/05