:Product: 0314RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Mar 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Region 1169 (N18W47)
produced an impulsive M4/1n flare at 14/1952Z with associated radio
bursts at the higher range (4995, 8800, 15400 MHz).  Region 1166
(N09W78) and 1169 are both Dao type spot groups and contain a
beta-gamma magnetic classification.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an M-class event for day one (15 March).  Low
activity with a slight chance for an M-class event are expected for
days two and three (16-17 March) as Regions 1166 and 1169 make their
transit around the west limb of the sun.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  Solar wind speeds observed by the
ACE spacecraft continue to average around 550 km/s under the
influence of a coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (15-17
March).
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
Class M    40/20/15
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Mar 107
Predicted   15 Mar-17 Mar  105/100/100
90 Day Mean        14 Mar 094
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01