:Product: 0315RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Mar 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Region 1169 (N17W60)
produced a M1 event at 15/0022Z.  This region continues to maintain
its beta-gamma magnetic classification.  Region 1166 (N12W91 is
making its transit around the west limb of the sun today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance of an M-class event from Region 1166 for the next two
days (16-17 March).  On day three (18 March) activity is expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  Observations from the ACE
spacecraft show solar wind velocities are averaging around 400 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (16-18 March).
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
Class M    40/30/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Mar 102
Predicted   16 Mar-18 Mar  100/100/100
90 Day Mean        15 Mar 094
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01