:Product: 0317RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Mar 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 1169
(N18W89) produced a single B4 X-ray event at 17/1153Z. After further
analysis, the partial-halo CME associated with the long-duration
C3/Sf flare at 16/2034Z from Region 1169 (N17W75 at the time of the
event) did not appear to be Earth-directed. New Region 1174 (N22W36)
emerged on the disk as a simple bi-polar group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately very low levels for the next three days (18 - 20
March). A chance for C-class activity exists all three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (18 - 20 March).
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Mar 090
Predicted   18 Mar-20 Mar  085/080/085
90 Day Mean        17 Mar 094
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar  001/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01