:Product: 0319RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Mar 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 078 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 1175
(N14W22) grew both in areal coverage and spot count and remained a
simple bi-polar group. The remainder of the disk and limb was quiet
and stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately very low levels with a chance for C-class activity on
day one (20 March). Days two and three (21 - 22 March) will see an
increasing chance for C-class activity, with a slight chance for
isolated M-class activity, due to the return of old Regions 1165
(S20, L=198) and 1164 (N24, L=179).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind velocities, as measured
at the ACE satellite, averaged 350 km/s. The Bz component of the
interplanetary field did not vary much beyond +/- 4nT through the
period. A change in magnetic field vector from a positive (away) to
a negative (toward) orientation was observed at about 19/1800Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels for the next three days
(20 - 22 March).
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
Class M    01/10/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Mar 089
Predicted   20 Mar-22 Mar  090/095/100
90 Day Mean        19 Mar 094
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01