:Product: 0322RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Mar 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 081 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels. Isolated C-class
flares occurred, the largest of which was a C3 at 22/0337Z from
Region 1176 (S14E68). Region 1176 was a Dho-type spot group with a
beta magnetic configuration. No new regions were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
during days 1 - 3 (23 - 25 March) with a chance for an M-class flare
from Region 1176.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit that began at
21/1950Z reached a maximum flux of 14 pfu at 22/0130Z and ended at
22/0335Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day 1 (23 March). An
increase to quiet to unsettled levels is expected during days 2 - 3
(24 - 25 March) as a coronal hole high-speed stream disturbs the
field.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Mar 100
Predicted   23 Mar-25 Mar  105/110/115
90 Day Mean        22 Mar 095
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar  005/005-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01