:Product: 0324RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Mar 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 083 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 1176 (S16E44)
produced an isolated impulsive M1/1F flare at 24/1207Z associated
with minor radio emission and a partial-halo CME (estimated
plane-of-sky velocity 421 km/s). It also produced occasional B- and
C-class flares during the period. Region 1176 showed a minor
increase in intermediate spots and was classified as an Eki with a
moderately complex beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Regions
1178 (S13E68) and 1179 (N09W32) were numbered. Both were small and
magnetically simple sunspot groups.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
during the period (25 - 27 March) with a chance for
another M-class flare from Region 1176.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. ACE solar wind data
indicated Earth remained under the influence of a coronal hole
high-speed wind stream. Solar wind velocities were variable in the
419 to 500 km/s range. IMF Bz was northward during most of the
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the period (25 - 27
March).
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Mar 108
Predicted   25 Mar-27 Mar  110/115/120
90 Day Mean        24 Mar 095
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01