:Product: 0402RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Apr 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 092 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 1183 (N15W12)
produced only B-class events.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance for moderate activity (isolated M-class)
from Region 1183 during the period (03 - 05 April).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels in response to a
coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS).
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during day one (03
April) with a chance for active levels as CH HSS effects persist.
Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels during days
two and three (04 - 05 April) as CH HSS effects subside.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Apr 108
Predicted   03 Apr-05 Apr  110/110/105
90 Day Mean        02 Apr 098
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr  009/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01