:Product: 0411RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Apr 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. At 11/0912Z GOES 15 XRS
detected a B9.2 flare. The flare was off the east limb from
returning old Region 1176 (L= 278). A CME was observed on Stereo B
EUV imagery at approximately the same time. This region also
produced a C-class flare at 11/1602Z. The other regions on the
visible disk were quiet and stable. New Region 1190 (N12E35) was
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance for C-class flares for the next three days
(12 - 14 April).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind
speeds measured at the ACE Spacecraft increased from approximately
360 km/s to approximately 420 km/s in response to a coronal hole
high-speed stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (12 -
14 April) as the coronal hole high-speed stream effects decrease.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Apr 106
Predicted   12 Apr-14 Apr  100/100/105
90 Day Mean        11 Apr 101
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01