:Product: 0415RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Apr 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
1190 (N13W26) produced an M1/1F flare at 15/1712Z. Associated with
this event were discrete radio emissions ranging from 4995 MHz -
15400 MHz. Occasional C-class flares were also observed during the
period. Region 1190 and Region 1193 (N17E44) remain the most
significant regions. Both Regions 1190 and 1193 showed increases in
areal coverage. A filament was observed lifting at 14/2324Z on GOES
SXI. A CME was observed on SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 15/0036Z, with a
speed of approximately 390 km/s. STEREO imagery showed the CME is
expected to be geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels, with C-class flares expected for the next three days
(16-18 April). There is also a slight chance for M-class flares
during the period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (16-18
April).
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Apr 129
Predicted   16 Apr-18 Apr  135/140/145
90 Day Mean        15 Apr 103
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr  003/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01