:Product: 0423RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Apr 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1195 (S16E14) produced
several impulsive C-class flares during the period. This spot group
maintained a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration, though also showing
signs of decay with a decrease in area. Region 1193 (N17W57) was
stable and quiet during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is forecast to be low
with a chance for a M-class x-ray event in the next 3 days (24-26
April).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with the exception of an
isolated period of active conditions between 23/09Z and 23/12Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days (24-26 April).
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Apr 119
Predicted   24 Apr-26 Apr  118/115/115
90 Day Mean        23 Apr 105
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr  003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Apr  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01