:Product: 0430RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Apr 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Regions 1195 (S16W80) and 1199
(N20W74) produced a few C-class flares during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is forecast to be low
with a chance for a M-class flare on days 1 and 2 (1-2 May), before
Regions 1195 and 1199 rotate off the disk. Low activity is expected
on day 3 (3 May).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm conditions
as the result of coronal hole (CH) high-speed stream (HSS) effects.
The solar wind speeds at the ACE spacecraft ranged between 640 km/s
and 700 km/s during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from unsettled to active conditions with isolated
minor storms possible for days 1 and 2 (1-2 May).  Mostly quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on day 3 (3 May), when CH HSS
effects begin to subside.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 May-03 May
Class M    25/25/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Apr 110
Predicted   01 May-03 May  110/110/105
90 Day Mean        30 Apr 108
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr  008/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr  015/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May  015/018-010/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/40/30
Minor storm           40/30/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/50/40
Minor storm           50/25/15
Major-severe storm    15/10/05