:Product: 0501RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 May 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1195 (S16W99) produced
the sole event of the period, a C1 flare at 01/0814Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is forecast to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (2-4 May).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active at mid latitudes. Minor
to major storm conditions occurred at high latitudes due to Coronal
Hole (CH) high-speed stream (HSS) effects. Solar winds speeds were
sustained above 620 km/s during the period. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active with a chance for a minor
storm on day 1 (2 May). Conditions are forecast to be unsettled to
active on day 2 (3 May) and return to quiet on day 3 (4 May) as CH
HSS effects are expected to subside.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 May-04 May
Class M    10/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 May 106
Predicted   02 May-04 May  105/100/100
90 Day Mean        01 May 108
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr  017/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May  016/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May  012/015-008/010-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor storm           30/10/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/40/20
Minor storm           25/15/01
Major-severe storm    10/01/01