:Product: 0503RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 May 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. A single C-class x-ray flare
occurred from Region 1204 (N17E26) at 03/1052Z.  A new region, 1206
(N22W18), was numbered and identified with a simple Beta magnetic
classification. A 20 degree filament erupted from N28W64 at around
14Z. A concurrent CME was observed off the northwest quadrant of the
sun on NASA SOHO LASCO C2/C3 coronagraphs as well as on STEREO A/B
coronagraphs, but does not appear to be Earth directed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (4-6 May).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to quiet as coronal hole
(CH) high-speed stream (HSS) effects continued to decline. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels throughout the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days (4-6 May).
III.  Event Probabilities 04 May-06 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 May 107
Predicted   04 May-06 May  110/110/110
90 Day Mean        03 May 109
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May  014/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01