:Product: 0505RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 May 05 2220 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2011
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY ::::::::::
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours. 
Region 1204 (N17W00) produced a B8 x-ray event at 05/1756Z.  New
Region 1207 (N24E40) was numbered today as a simple bi-polar group.
The remaining active regions were quiet and stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during days one through three (06-08 May).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated the solar wind
speed remained steady at about 400 km/s during the period. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one through three (06-08
May).
III.  Event Probabilities 06 May-08 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 May 105
Predicted   06 May-08 May  105/105/105
90 Day Mean        05 May 109
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May  003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May  005/007-007/007-007/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01