:Product: 0506RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 May 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 1206 (N22W60)
produced a B3 x-ray event at 06/0312Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for days one through three (07-09 May).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet on days one and two (07-08 May).
Quiet to unsettled conditions, with a chance for isolated active
periods, is expected on day three (09 May).  The increase in
activity is forecast due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream becoming geo-effective.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 May-09 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 May 102
Predicted   07 May-09 May  100/100/100
90 Day Mean        06 May 109
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May  005/005-005/005-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/20
Minor storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/25
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05