:Product: 0508RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 May 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity remained very low. Region 1203 (N18W55)
produced an isolated B-class flare. There were four spot groups on
the visible disk, none of which were magnetically complex, including
newly numbered Regions 1208 (N13E49) and 1209 (N35E08).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low during the period (09 - 11 May) with a chance for an isolated
C-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (09 May). Activity is
expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day 2 (10 May)
as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) begins to
disturb the field. Quiet to active levels are expected on day 3 (11
May) as the CH HSS persists.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 May-11 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 May 102
Predicted   09 May-11 May  102/102/100
90 Day Mean        08 May 110
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May  001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May  005/005-008/008-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/30
Minor storm           01/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/35
Minor storm           01/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01