:Product: 0509RSGA.txt :Issued: 2011 May 09 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2011 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity increased to low levels. Newly-numbered Region 1210 (N20E08) produced occasional B-class flares and isolated low-level C-class flares. Region 1210 was classified as a Dsi group with a beta magnetic configuration. A C5 flare occurred at 09/2059Z, associated with an event from beyond the northeast limb. New Region 1211 (S12W23) was numbered. It was classified as a Bxo group with a simple beta magnetic configuration. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low through the period (10 - 12 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (10 May) as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) begins to disturb the field. Quiet to active levels are expected during days 2 - 3 (11 - 12 May) as the CH HSS persists. III. Event Probabilities 10 May-12 May Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 May 104 Predicted 10 May-12 May 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 09 May 110 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 May 000/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 008/008-012/012-012/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/30/30 Minor storm 05/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/35/35 Minor storm 10/20/20 Major-severe storm 01/01/01