:Product: 0512RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 May 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. A
single C2/1F was observed at 12/1236Z. The x-ray event and flare are
likely associated with a filament which disappeared between
12/1216Z-1231Z located near N18E47.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during days one through three (13-15 May). Region 1208
(N21W06) is the most likely region for activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (13-14 May).
Day three (15 May) is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a
slight chance for an isolated active period, late in the day. The
increase in activity is forecast due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream becoming geo-effective.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 May 093
Predicted   13 May-15 May  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        12 May 110
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May  008/010-008/008-010/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01