:Product: 0513RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 May 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low during the past 24
hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for days one through three (14-16 May).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (14 May). Days two and
three (15-16 May) are expected to be quiet to unsettled with a
chance for isolated active periods.  The increase in activity is
forecast due to a coronal hole high speed stream becoming
geo-effective.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 May-16 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 May 092
Predicted   14 May-16 May  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        13 May 109
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May  003/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May  005/008-012/012-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/20/15
Minor storm           01/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/30/10
Minor storm           01/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01