:Product: 0515RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 May 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region
1208 (N11W48) produced an isolated C1/Sf at 15/1620Z. This region
grew in area and is classified as an Eso type sunspot group. Region
1214 (S21E01) grew but remained a simple magnetic bi-polar group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during the next three days (16-18 May).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active during the past 24 hours. 
Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicate the onset of a coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS).  Solar wind velocities increased
throughout the period to about 590 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled, with a slight
chance for isolated active periods on days one and two (16-17 May). 
Day three (18 May) is expected to be quiet as the CH HSS subsides.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 May-18 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 May 095
Predicted   16 May-18 May  092/092/090
90 Day Mean        15 May 110
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May  011/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  008/008-008/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/05
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor storm           10/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01