:Product: 0516RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 May 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region
1208 (N08W64) produced a C4 event at 15/2334Z. An associated CME was
first observed on LASCO C2 imagery at 16/0024Z and had an estimated
plane-of-sky speed of 250 km/s. It is not expected to be
geoeffective. New Region 1216 (S14E66) was numbered today and is
considered an Hsx group at this time.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
low for the next three days (17-19 May).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period at 15/1800Z due the effects of a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS).
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods for day one (17 May). A decline from quiet to unsettled to
mostly quiet conditions is expected on days two and three (18-19
May) as the CH HSS gradually subsides.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 May-19 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 May 092
Predicted   17 May-19 May  090/090/095
90 Day Mean        16 May 109
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May  008/010-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01