:Product: 0525RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 May 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Only low level B-class
events were observed during the period.  Region 1220 (N12, L=249)
produced a long duration B2 event at 24/2237Z prior to its rotation
around the west limb.  Region 1218 (S16W28) also produced B-class
events with frequent point brightenings within the region.  This
region remains a spotless plage.  A nine degree filament located at
N44E37 disappeared between 25/0801-1256Z.  A further analysis of
this event will be performed as image data updates for any
associated CME activity.  New Region 1222 (N15W24) was numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  Solar wind speeds observed by the
ACE spacecraft have averaged around 380 km/s through the period with
occasional minor fluctuations in the IMF Bz between -4/+5 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day one (26 May).  Quiet to unsettled
conditions, with isolated active levels, are expected for days two
and three (27-28 May) as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream
becomes geo-effective.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 May-28 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 May 080
Predicted   26 May-28 May  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        25 May 108
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 May  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 May  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May  005/008-010/012-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May-28 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/20/25
Minor storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/30/35
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05