:Product: 0603RSGA.txt :Issued: 2011 Jun 03 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2011 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1226 (S22W14) produced a C2/Sf flare at 03/1617Z. This region is a Dkc group with a beta magnetic classification. All other numbered regions on the disk remained stable through the period. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active with isolated minor storm conditions, and isolated major storm levels at high latitudes, for day one (04 June). Activity is expected due to the combination of effects from a coronal hole high-speed stream and a CME observed on 02 June. Quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active conditions are expected for day two (05 June). Day three (06 June) is expected to be quiet to unsettled as activity effects subside. III. Event Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun Class M 10/10/10 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Jun 107 Predicted 04 Jun-06 Jun 106/104/102 90 Day Mean 03 Jun 107 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 020/025-015/018-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/30/15 Minor storm 20/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 45/35/25 Minor storm 25/20/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/01