:Product: 0606RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Jun 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1226 (S22W52)
produced a few low-level C-class events. During the past 24 hours,
Region 1227 (S21W35) decayed from a D-type to an H-type spot group.
Region 1232 (N08E07) developed trailer spots to become a C-type from
an H-type spot group. A 12 degree long filament, centered near
N25W34, erupted during the period. SDO/AIA 193 imagery revealed
material movement along a large filament channel, first visible at
06/0441Z, which continued through about 06/0900Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class event all three days (07 - 09
June).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much
beyond +/- 4 nT. Solar wind velocities, as measured at the ACE
spacecraft, steadily declined through period from about 500 km/s to
near 420 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit remained enhanced through the period, reaching a maximum of
4.8 pfu at 06/0405Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels for the next three days
(07 - 09 June).
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jun 100
Predicted   07 Jun-09 Jun  098/096/095
90 Day Mean        06 Jun 106
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun  020/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01