:Product: 0609RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Jun 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1226 (S20W95) produced a
C4/Sf flare at 09/0348Z as it neared the west limb. New Region 1234
(S16E59) produced a C1 flare at 09/1028Z. Region 1234 was classified
as a Bxo group with a simple bipolar structure. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to very low
through the period (10 - 12 June) with a chance for an isolated
C-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
forecast to increase to unsettled to active levels early on day 1
(10 June) with a chance for minor storm levels due to the arrival of
the halo-CME observed on 07 June. Activity is expected to decrease
to quiet to unsettled levels during 11 - 12 June. There will be a
chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous
orbit on day 1 due to the expected CME arrival.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     50/25/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jun 088
Predicted   10 Jun-12 Jun  088/088/088
90 Day Mean        09 Jun 104
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun  009/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun  018/025-010/012-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor storm           25/10/01
Major-severe storm    15/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor storm           30/20/05
Major-severe storm    20/10/01