:Product: 0610RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Jun 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. A C2 x-ray flare occurred at
10/1751Z and appeared to originate from old Region 1226 (S22,
L=037), which crossed the west limb yesterday. Region 1234 (S16E43)
produced an isolated B-class flare and remained a simply-structured
Bxo-type group. No new regions were assigned.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (11 - 13 June) with a chance for an isolated
C-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels during the period.
Active levels occurred at Boulder during 09/2100 - 10/0000Z
associated with increased solar wind speeds and IMF Bt, coupled with
a period of southward IMF Bz. Quiet to unsettled levels occurred
after 10/0000Z. A geomagnetic sudden impulse (SI) occurred at
10/0855Z (15 nT, Boulder USGS magnetometer). The SI was in response
to the arrival of the halo-coronal mass ejection observed on 07
June. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the period (11 -
13 June) with a chance for brief active levels during 11 - 12 June
due to a coronal hole high-speed stream, expected to commence on 11
June.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jun 087
Predicted   11 Jun-13 Jun  086/086/086
90 Day Mean        10 Jun 104
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun  007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun  010/010-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01