:Product: 0614RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Jun 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels during the period. New
Region 1236 (N17E64) rotated onto the disk as a D-type spot group
and produced two low-level C-class events. A north-south oriented
filament channel, located near the SE limb, erupted during the
period. SDO/AIA 193 imagery revealed material movement along the
large channel, first visible at 14/0609Z, and movement continued
through about 14/1500Z. Associated with the filament eruption was a
partial halo CME off the east limb, first visible in STEREO-Behind
COR2 imagery at 14/0810Z. A plane-of-sky velocity was estimated at
about 750 km/s. This CME does not appear to be Earth-directed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for an M-class event all three days
of the forecast period (15 - 17 June).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an
isolated active period observed between 14/0900 - 1200Z. This
activity was due to continued effects from a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream. During the period, solar wind velocities rose
steadily from near 450 km/s to about 550 km/s. The Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field varied between +/- 8 nT while Bt
varied between 5 and 10 nT. The greater than 10 MeV proton
enhancement, present since 11 June, decayed to background levels
early on 14 June.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (15 June),
with a chance for active levels due to continued high speed stream
effects. Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels on
days two and three (16 - 17 June) as high speed stream effects
subside.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jun 099
Predicted   15 Jun-17 Jun  100/105/105
90 Day Mean        14 Jun 103
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun  008/008-005/005-005/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/10/05
Minor storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01