:Product: 0618RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Jun 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 1234
(S16W61) produced occasional B- and C-class flares during the
period, the largest of which was a C3/Sn at 17/2342Z. Region 1234
showed an increase in interior spots and maintained a simple beta
magnetic configuration. Region 1236 (N17E18) showed a gradual loss
of trailer spots during the period, but maintained a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. New Region 1237 (S15E53) was numbered early
in the period and was classified as a simple Axx-type. No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the
period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (19 - 21 June). There will also be a chance for
an isolated M-class flare during days 1 - 2 (19 - 20 June).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels through the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to remain at quiet levels on day 1 (19 June). Activity is
expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels during days 2 - 3
(20 - 21 June), with a chance for brief active periods, due to a
coronal hole high-speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
Class M    20/20/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jun 099
Predicted   19 Jun-21 Jun  100/100/095
90 Day Mean        18 Jun 104
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun  008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  005/005-007/008-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/25/25
Minor storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01