:Product: 0628RSGA.txt :Issued: 2011 Jun 28 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2011 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Three B-class flares were observed during the period. Region 1236 (N16, L=170) produced a long-duration B6 flare at 28/0107Z, as well as a B9 flare at 28/1321Z. New Regions 1242 (N18W03) and 1243 (N18E62) were numbered today. Both Regions are small and were classified as Cro-beta groups. Region 1243 produced a B3 flare at 28/0647Z. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low for the period (29 Jun - 1 July), with a chance for an isolated C-class flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet during days 1 and 2 (29 - 30 June). Activity is expected to be at quiet levels during most of day 3 (01 July), with an active period late in the day (01 July). The increase in activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. III. Event Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 28 Jun 087 Predicted 29 Jun-01 Jul 088/088/088 90 Day Mean 28 Jun 102 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul 005/005-005/005-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/20 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01