:Product: 0703RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Jul 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1244 (N16W38) produced a
C2/Sf flare at 03/1101Z. Earlier in the period, Region 1244 produced
a B9/Sf at 03/0024Z with an associated Type II radio sweep and a
Type IV radio sweep. A partial-halo CME was observed lifting off the
southwest with an estimated plane of sky speed of 525 km/s. The CME
was observed on LASCO C3 at 03/0142Z and on STEREO Ahead EUVI 195 at
03/0209Z. Region 1244 also produced a long duration B2 flare at
03/0807Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare for the next three
days (04-06 July).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with an
isolated active period at high latitudes between 03/0300-0600Z. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 July).
Quiet levels are expected on days two and three (05-06 July).
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jul 086
Predicted   04 Jul-06 Jul  086/086/086
90 Day Mean        03 Jul 100
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul  003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul  006/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul  007/007-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01