:Product: 0711RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Jul 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1249 (S18W04) produced a
C2/1f at 11/1103Z with a Type II radio signature (est. shock
velocity 977 km/s). A CME associated with this event became visible
in STEREO COR-2 imagery at 11/1209Z and had an estimated speed of
750 km/s. Region 1251 (N15E68) was numbered overnight and is
currently an Hsx-alpha type region. All other regions on the disk
appear to be relatively stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next three days
(12-14 July).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active during the past 24 hours.
The increase in activity is due to a combination of the coronal hole
high speed stream (CH HSS) and the CME observed on 09 July. A Sudden
Impulse (SI) was observed at Earth at 11/0852Z with a 24 nT
deviation measured at the Boulder magnetometer indicating the
arrival of the CME. ACE spacecraft measurements indicated solar wind
velocities of 700 km/s towards the end of the period, most likely
due to the arrival of a second CH HSS.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods
for the next three days (12-14 July) due to the onset of a recurrent
CH HSS and the anticipated arrival (late on day two) of the CME
observed early this morning.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jul 090
Predicted   12 Jul-14 Jul  092/094/094
90 Day Mean        11 Jul 099
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul  008/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul  007/007-010/012-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/15
Minor storm           10/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/15
Minor storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01