:Product: 0715RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Jul 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1256 (N09E34) was numbered early in the period and
is classified as Dro-beta. There are currently 7 spotted regions on
the visible disk, but all have remained stable and quiet.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to levels with a chance for C-class events for the next
three days (16-18 July).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (16-18 July).
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jul 094
Predicted   16 Jul-18 Jul  094/094/092
90 Day Mean        15 Jul 097
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul  005/005-005/005-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01