:Product: 0720RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Jul 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. There were five numbered
active regions today, but most remained quiet and stable. Regions
1254 (S22W17) and 1259 (N25E42) were classified as Cso Beta groups.
Only 1254 produced any x-ray events during the period, the largest a
B8 flare at 20/1551Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with the chance for a C-class event for the next 3 days
(21-23 July).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active during the
period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active for the next 3 days (21-23
July), with an isolated minor storm possible at high latitudes. This
activity is forecast as the result of high speed stream effects from
a currently geoeffective coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jul 100
Predicted   21 Jul-23 Jul  100/100/100
90 Day Mean        20 Jul 097
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul  010/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul  016/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul  018/015-014/012-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor storm           30/30/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/50/40
Minor storm           40/40/20
Major-severe storm    10/05/01