:Product: 0721RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Jul 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Regions 1254 (S24W28) and
1259 (N25E32) remained present on the disk but were quiet and
stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (22-24 July).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled for the majority of the
period, before decreasing to quiet conditions as Bz turned primarily north. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for days 1-2 (22-23 July), then
decreasing to mostly quiet on day 3 (24 July) as coronal hole
effects wane.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jul 096
Predicted   22 Jul-24 Jul  096/095/095
90 Day Mean        21 Jul 096
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul  012/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul  010/010-008/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor storm           30/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/40/20
Minor storm           40/30/20
Major-severe storm    10/05/01