:Product: 0722RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Jul 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Regions 1254 (S24W42) and
1259 (N25E18) were both Dso Beta groups, remaining quiet and stable
during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance for a C-class flare over the next 3 days
(23-25 July).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the period, with the
exception of an isolated period of active conditions between
22/06-09Z due to night time sub storming. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with an isolated nighttime active
period possible on day 1 (23 July) from coronal hole effects.
Conditions are expected to be mostly quiet for days 2-3 (24-25
July), as high speed stream effects are expected to subside.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jul 092
Predicted   23 Jul-25 Jul  092/092/090
90 Day Mean        22 Jul 096
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/20
Minor storm           30/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/30/20
Minor storm           40/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/01/01