:Product: 0723RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Jul 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 1254 (S26W54) and
Region 1259 (N23E02) are classified as Cao type spot groups.  Both
regions remained quiet and stable.  Multiple B class x-ray events
were observed, the largest a B5 at 23/1449 Z. The origin of the
activity is just beyond the east limb and is likely returning Region
1246 (L=329).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (24-26 July).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. Solar wind data observed at the ACE spacecraft indicated a
decrease in velocity from 600 km/s to about 500 km/s during the
period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance of isolated
active periods for the next three days (24-26 July). The activity is
forecast due to the expected arrival of another coronal hole high
speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jul 088
Predicted   24 Jul-26 Jul  088/088/086
90 Day Mean        23 Jul 096
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul  006/006-005/005-009/009
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01