:Product: 0724RSGA.txt :Issued: 2011 Jul 24 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2011 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours. New region 1260 (N20E71) was numbered today, and is initially classified as an Axx type spot group. Region 1254 (S23W67) and Region 1259 (N25W10) both decreased in area and remained quiet. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class activity for the next three days (25-27 July). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. Solar wind data observed at the ACE spacecraft indicated a continued decrease in solar wind velocity to about 400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (25 July). Quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated active conditions are expected on days two and three (26-27). The activity is forecast due to the expected arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream. III. Event Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Jul 086 Predicted 25 Jul-27 Jul 085/084/084 90 Day Mean 24 Jul 095 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul 005/005-009/009-007/007 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/15/10 Minor storm 01/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/10 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01