:Product: 0807RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Aug 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Only low level C-flares were
observed from Regions 1263 (N17W55) and 1267 (S17W00).  Region 1263
exhibited motion and growth within its central and trailing spots;
merging of trailing spots with the central spots produced an
additional delta configuration in the group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels.  M-flares are likely and there is a slight chance
for an X-flare and/or proton event with Region 1263 as the most
likely source.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  The solar wind speed
increased to 600 km/s at the beginning of the period and has been
slowly decreasing since approximately 06/2218Z.  The solar sector
(phi angle) remained generally positive suggesting the presence of a
coronal hole high speed stream.  The period ended with solar wind
speed around 500 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 08 August as the effects of the
high speed stream weaken.  Mostly quiet conditions are expected on
09-10 August.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Aug 105
Predicted   08 Aug-10 Aug  100/095/085
90 Day Mean        07 Aug 096
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug  014/031
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug  008/012-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01