:Product: 0814RSGA.txt :Issued: 2011 Aug 14 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2011 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. The largest X-ray enhancement of the past 24 hours reached B9 level around 14/1030Z originating from an area near the northeast limb. There are currently no spotted regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (15-17 August). There is a chance for a C-class X-ray event throughout the period with the new region on the northeast limb being the most likely source of activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Observations of the solar wind from the ACE spacecraft indicated elevated speeds reaching up to 500 km/s, consistent with a high speed stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet to unsettled with a chance for active periods due to the coronal hole high speed stream. III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Aug 088 Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 14 Aug 096 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 010/010-010/010-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/25 Minor storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 35/35/25 Minor storm 15/15/05 Major-severe storm 05/05/01