:Product: 0817RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Aug 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Both Regions 1271 (N16E50) and
1272 (S19E55) produced C-class events during the summary period. 
The largest was a C3 from Region 1271 at 17/1119Z.  Region 1271
ended the period as an Esi type spot group with beta-gamma-delta
magnetic characteristics.  New Region 1273 (S18W03) was numbered
today and classified as a Bxo type spot group with simple beta
magnetic characteristics.  A CME from Region 1272 was observed in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 17/0248Z with a plane-of-sky speed of about
550 km/s.  This CME is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
Continued C-class events are expected from Regions 1271 and 1272, 
There is a slight chance for an M-class event given the increasing
size and complexity of Region 1271.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  Wind speed at the ACE
spacecraft continued to decline through the summary period, ending
near 420 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (18-20 August).
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Aug 098
Predicted   18 Aug-20 Aug  098/100/100
90 Day Mean        17 Aug 096
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/10
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    00/00/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/05/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/05