:Product: 0819RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Aug 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 1271 (N16E25) did
not produce any significant activity during the past 24 hours,
although it did retain a large Esi type spot group with beta-gamma
magnetic characteristics.  The other two regions were small and
simple.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
on Day 1 (20 Aug), becoming low with a chance for moderate activity
on Days 2 and 3 (21-22 Aug) when old Region 1261 (N15, L=347)
returns.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet and the solar wind at the ACE
spacecraft was unremarkable.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on Day 1 (20 Aug) and rise to
unsettled levels with a chance for active conditions on Day 2 (21
Aug).  The rise in activity is expected with the arrival of a
coronal hole high speed stream.  By Day 3 (22 Aug), a return to
mostly quiet conditions is expected as weak coronal hole effects
wane.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
Class M    05/45/45
Class X    01/05/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Aug 098
Predicted   20 Aug-22 Aug  100/100/100
90 Day Mean        19 Aug 096
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug  001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug  005/005-010/012-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/10
Minor storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/50/20
Minor storm           05/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/10/05