:Product: 0823RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Aug 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. The largest event in the
last 24 hours was a B5 event that originated from Region 1271
(N17W29) at 23/0125Z. This region has shown separation and decayed
penumbra in its trailer spots. It is now classified as a Eki spot
group with a Beta magnetic configuration. Regions 1272 (S21W20),
1274 (N19E30) and 1275 (N08E39) showed various amounts of decay. New
Region 1276 (N20E48) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for an M-class event from Region
1271 for the next three days (24-26 August).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (24-26 August).
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Aug 104
Predicted   24 Aug-26 Aug  105/110/110
90 Day Mean        23 Aug 097
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01