:Product: 0828RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Aug 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. New Region 1281 (S21E64)
produced occasional optical subflares during the period, two of
which were associated with B-class x-ray flares. No significant
activity was noted in the remaining spot groups. A weak Type II
radio sweep occurred at 28/0420Z, likely associated with a filament
disappearance from beyond the west limb. There were no
Earth-directed CMEs observed during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low during the period (29 - 31 August) with a chance for an isolated
C-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (29 August).
Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected during days 2 - 3 (30 - 31
August).
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Aug 101
Predicted   29 Aug-31 Aug  100/098/095
90 Day Mean        28 Aug 097
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01