:Product: 0905RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Sep 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 1286 (N20W86)
produced M1 x-ray flares at 05/0428Z and 05/0758Z as it approached
the west limb. Region 1286 also produced a long-duration C7 x-ray
flare at 05/0037Z associated with a non-Earth-directed CME. An
eruption occurred along a filament channel in the northeast quadrant
at around 05/0230Z and was associated with a slow,
non-Earth-directed CME. Region 1283 (N14W04) showed minor changes
during the period and was classified as an Eai group with a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region 1288 was numbered as a
small Bxo group with a simple beta magnetic configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (06 - 08 September). There will be a chance for
an M-class flare from Region 1286 on 06 September. There will be a
slight chance for an M-class flare during 07 - 08 September from
Region 1283.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at mostly quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during the period (06 - 08
September).
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M    20/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Sep 119
Predicted   06 Sep-08 Sep  115/110/105
90 Day Mean        05 Sep 098
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01