:Product: 0906RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Sep 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 1283
(N14W18) produced an M5/1b flare at 06/0150Z associated with Types
II and IV radio sweeps and an Earth-directed full-halo CME. The CME
had an estimated speed of around 450 km/sec, based upon STEREO-A
COR2 data, with the bulk of the ejecta directed north of the
ecliptic plane. Region 1283 appeared to develop a magnetic delta
configuration in its north-central portion and was classified as an
Eai-type with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Old Region
1286 (N20, L = 310) produced multiple CMEs from beyond the west
limb, none of which were Earth-directed. New Region 1289 (N24E78)
was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the period (07 - 09 September) with more M-class
flare activity likely from Region 1283.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels. Proton flux
enhancements at greater than 100 MeV and greater than 10 MeV began
around 06/0300Z at geosynchronous orbit in the wake of the M5 flare
mentioned above.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the period (07 - 09
September). The halo-CME mentioned above is not expected to affect
the field during the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Sep 112
Predicted   07 Sep-09 Sep  110/105/100
90 Day Mean        06 Sep 098
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01